(And What It Means for You)
If you’re wondering how Trump’s potential policies might impact the European real estate market—especially in hotspots like Spain, Portugal, and Switzerland—you’re in the right place. Let’s break it down in a way that’s easy to understand, with insights backed by expert sources.
1. Trade Wars & Construction Costs
President Trump’s recent tariff adjustments have created a mixed outlook for construction costs across Europe. While a temporary 90-day pause on tariffs for most U.S. trading partners has provided some relief, the continued 10% blanket tariff on imports and a sharp increase to 125% on Chinese goods signal potential cost hikes for imported materials like steel and timber.
- Spain & Portugal: Developers in these regions, especially those reliant on tourism-driven projects, may face higher costs for imported materials. This could delay or scale back construction plans.
- Switzerland: With stronger local supply chains, Switzerland is relatively insulated. However, luxury developments relying on international materials could still experience delays.
2. Investor Shifts: Where’s the Safe Haven?
As trade tensions escalate, European real estate markets are increasingly seen as safe havens for global investors.
- Spain: Despite proposed new taxes on non-EU buyers and the impending end of its Golden Visa program, coastal areas remain attractive to U.S. investors seeking euro-denominated assets. CBRE forecasts a 5–8% price increase in these regions.
- Portugal: The Algarve continues to draw interest from high-net-worth individuals leveraging Golden Visa programs before they are phased out. Luxury markets are expected to grow further.
- Switzerland: The Swiss franc’s stability and political neutrality make it a magnet for ultra-high-net-worth investors, even as its strong currency could deter some deals.
3. Geopolitical Wildcards
Global trade tensions and Trump’s policies introduce several uncertainties:
- Sustainability vs. Fossil Fuels: Trump’s pro-drilling stance could clash with Europe’s green energy goals, potentially complicating funding for eco-friendly developments like Spain’s solar resorts.
- Investment Shifts: Protectionist policies and tariffs could redirect U.S. investments toward European real estate as a safe haven, while simultaneously discouraging local investors due to increased uncertainty and higher costs of imported materials.
Inflation Risks: Rising global inflation linked to tariffs may undermine purchasing power and slow investment flows into real estate markets.
4. Regional Snapshot
| Market | 2025 Outlook | Top Risk |
| Spain | Coastal demand ↗️ | Non-EU buyer taxes |
| Portugal | Luxury segment grows | Trade war slows investment |
| Switzerland | Prime yields hold steady | Strong franc deters deals |
What This Means for You
Whether you’re a buyer, developer, or investor, staying informed is crucial:
- Buyers: Take advantage of favorable euro-to-dollar exchange rates while monitoring potential tax changes in Spain and Portugal.
- Developers: Mitigate risks by sourcing materials locally where possible.
- Investors: Focus on Spain’s coastal reforms and Portugal’s luxury market while keeping an eye on Switzerland’s currency dynamics.
Stay ahead of the curve with AMB Real Estate.
Sources:
- Committee on the Global Financial System. (2025). Property price dynamics: domestic and international drivers. Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved from BIS Quarterly Review, March 2004.
- abrdn. (2025). Global Real Estate Market Outlook Q1 2025. Insights on global property returns and market trends.
- Avobis. (2025). Six Key Questions for 2025. Analysis of Swiss real estate investment opportunities and challenges.
- Julius Baer. (2025). Property Market Report Switzerland. Insights into the Swiss high-end residential market and price trends.
- Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB). (2025). Real Estate Funds: The Market Outlook for 2025. Overview of Swiss construction activity and real estate fund performance.
- UBS Switzerland AG. (2025). Real Estate Focus 2025. Comprehensive analysis of Swiss property market dynamics, including population growth and sustainability trends
